If the first half of 2025 didn’t go quite the way you planned, you’re in good company.
Plenty of business owners started the year with high hopes. With a new administration and talk of economic growth, it felt like we might be heading into a stronger cycle. But Q1 didn’t follow the script. Instead of a surge, we saw hesitation—especially among consumers. Tariff announcements added to the uncertainty, and while the actual impact was debatable, the reaction was real.
People pulled back. Retail slowed down. Even many of the auto repair shops we work with had a tougher-than-usual start to the year.
But rather than panic, it might be time to reframe what “normal” actually looks like.
There’s a tendency to compare everything to the last few years. And that makes sense—2021 and 2022 were strong years for a lot of small businesses. Demand was high, cash was moving, and for many, it felt like a return to momentum after COVID.
But here’s the thing: that momentum might have been the anomaly.
If you're still waiting for 2025 to “pick up,” it might be time to shift your benchmark. Instead of measuring against the past three years, try comparing your business to pre-COVID trends—say, 2015 through 2019. Adjusting for inflation, those years give a better sense of what sustainable performance might look like now.
Many small business owners are trying to predict whether 2025 will bring a meaningful rebound in consumer demand or if this or if this level of performance is the new baseline. As we track interest rates, inflation, and changes in buyer behavior, it’s becoming clear that the post-pandemic surge isn’t the right benchmark for long-term planning. 🔗 See how new tax law changes could affect your planning.
Let’s zoom in on a few areas we’re watching closely.
People are spending more cautiously. Whether it’s a reaction to tariffs, interest rates, or just general uncertainty, the impulse to “wait and see” is strong. That affects industries like retail, logistics, and even service-based businesses.
On the flip side, construction continues to perform well—especially in maintenance and infrastructure. It’s less about expansion right now and more about catching up on projects that were stalled during the pandemic.
Yes, lending rates are starting to come down slightly. But if you're holding out for 2.5% mortgages or financing offers from 2021, those days are behind us. We’re looking at a gradual recalibration—not a full reset.
If you're a small business owner trying to make sense of all this, here's my recommendation:
Stop waiting for the floodgates to open. Instead, focus on tightening up your operation. That might mean reviewing your P&L, looking for ways to cut costs, or getting more creative with your reach.
Need help understanding what your P&L is really telling you? Here’s how to read your financial statements.
🔗 And don’t overlook your balance sheet!
Here are a few practical shifts we’ve seen work—especially when growth feels slower than expected:
Expand your local footprint. If you’re already running Google Ads or doing local outreach, consider widening your radius. Targeting nearby zip codes—just two or three towns over—can help you reach customers who need what you offer but haven’t found you yet.
Test new hours. You don’t have to be open seven days a week—but shifting your hours slightly could tap into a new customer base. Even one earlier evening or weekend option might make you more accessible to people you’re not reaching today.
Optimize what you already have. Before investing in new tools or strategies, look at what’s already in place. Are you fully using your software? Are you tracking the right numbers? Sometimes small adjustments to what you’ve already built can free up time, reduce stress, or uncover missed revenue.
The second half of 2025 may not bring the rebound some were hoping for—but that doesn’t mean you stop moving. It just means moving smarter.
If this year hasn’t played out the way you expected—and you're thinking more seriously about what kind of support your business actually needs—we’re here when you’re ready to talk.
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You’ve already built the business. Let’s figure out if we’re the right fit to help guide what comes next.